Smil, V. (2006) Transforming the twentieth century: technical innovations and their consequences (Oxford: Oxford University Press). With the Agricultural Revolution came a huge leap forward in the move from natural selection to intelligent design.  That seems an unlikely proposition.  Alternatively, one might try to build an argument based on complexity barriers for social organization in general rather than for particular technologies – perhaps something akin to Tainter’s explanation of past cases of societal collapse, mentioned in the previous section.  In order to produce the trajectories in figure 2, however, the explanation would have to be modified to allow for stagnation and plateauing rather than collapse.  One problem with this hypothesis is that it is unclear that the development of the technologies requisite to reach a posthuman condition would necessarily require a significant increase in the complexity of social organization beyond its present level. Transhumanism and the Future of Humanity. Your email address will not be published. If we can download our memories to a collective memory bank and then directly access the memories of others, remembering experiences as if they had happened to us personally, what does this mean about the nature of the self? For a visual analogy, picture a box with large but finite volume, representing the space of basic capabilities that could be obtained through some possible technology.  Imagine sand being poured into this box, representing research effort.  The way in which you pour the sand will determine the places and speed at which piles build up in the box.  Yet if you keep pouring, eventually the whole space gets filled. There is no doubt that …               Almost all the volume of the universe is ultra-high vacuum, and almost all of the tiny material specks in this vacuum are so hot or so cold, so dense or so dilute, as to be utterly inhospitable to organic life.  Spatially as well as temporally, our situation is an anomaly.17. Good, I. J. I wrote previously on human traitors of humanity in the Three-Body Problem: the Past of Earth (三体之地球往事）by Liu Cixin (刘慈欣). Gibbon, E., and Kitchin, T. (1777) The history of the decline and fall of the Roman empire: in twelve volumes. The Future of Humanity: At a tipping point with emerging technologies. 50. Heilbroner argued in Visions of the Future for the bold thesis that humanity’s perceptions of the shape of things to come has gone through exactly three phases since the first appearance of Homo sapiens.  In the first phase, which comprises all of human prehistory and most of history, the worldly future was envisaged – with very few exceptions – as changeless in its material, technological, and economic conditions.  In the second phase, lasting roughly from the beginning of the eighteenth century until the second half of the twentieth, worldly expectations in the industrialized world changed to incorporate the belief that the hitherto untamable forces of nature could be controlled through the appliance of science and rationality, and the future became a great beckoning prospect.  The third phase – mostly post-war but overlapping with the second phase – sees the future in a more ambivalent light: as dominated by impersonal forces, as disruptive, hazardous, and foreboding as well as promising. We’ll cover the various scenarios of intelligent (man-made) design replacing natural selection: biological engineering, cyborg engineering, and inorganic life engineering. The book was initially published on February 20, 2018 by Doubleday. It was founded in 2005 as part of the Faculty of Philosophy and the Oxford Martin School. - Present", in, Electronic document. Burkhead, L. Nanotechnology without Genies  1999. Note that each of the elements Crow and Sarewitz mention as required for the preparation for the future relies in some way on accurate prediction.  A capacity to learn from experience is not useful for preparing for the future unless we can correctly assume (predict) that the lessons we derive from the past will be applicable to future situations.  Close attention to what is going on in the present is likewise futile unless we can assume that what is going on in the present will reveal stable trends or otherwise shed light on what is likely to happen next.  It also requires non-trivial prediction to figure out what kind of institution will prove healthy, resilient, and effective in responding or adapting to future changes. In the future of humanity, intelligent design could replace natural selection in one of three ways (or a combination of the three): biological engineering, cyborg engineering, or inorganic life engineering. We can’t predict the future of humanity. Do not be intimidated by the fact that the book is 480 pages long. Anthropogenic human extinction is sometimes called omnicide. Bostrom, N., and Sandberg, A. Should insurance companies be allowed to ask for information on your DNA to check for predispositions for disease (or reckless behavior)? Research into creating bionic insects. The Future of Humanity: Terraforming Mars, Interstellar Travel, Immortality, and Our Destiny Beyond | Kaku, Michio | ISBN: 9780241304846 | Kostenloser Versand … Yes, many of these predictions will be falsified in the next fifty years. We’ve reduced famine and war, but we haven’t reduced suffering, our own or that of other species. The rich and powerful might actually become objectively smarter and more skilled than the rest of humanity.  Tainter notes that societies need to secure certain resources such as food, energy, and natural resources in order to sustain their populations.38  In their attempts to solve this supply problem, societies may grow in complexity – for example, in the form of bureaucracy, infrastructure, social class distinction, military operations, and colonies.  At some point, Tainter argues, the marginal returns on these investments in social complexity become unfavorable, and societies that do not manage to scale back when their organizational overheads become too large eventually face collapse. Environmental threats seem to have displaced nuclear holocaust as the chief specter haunting the public imagination. It is secured, with abundance, advancements in all fields, with love and unity for all. (1988) The collapse of complex societies New studies in archaeology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press). 1, No. It was founded in 2005 as part of the Faculty of Philosophy and the Oxford Martin School. (United_Nations_Population_Division 2004), 48. The scenarios presented in previous figures are here represented with a time axis that is slightly closer to linear and a y-axis that slightly better reveals how narrow a band the “human condition” is among all the possible levels of organismic and technological development.  The graph is still a mere schematic, not a strictly quantitative representation.  Note how the scenarios that postulate that the human condition will continue to hold indefinitely begin to look increasingly peculiar as we adjust the scales to reveal more of the larger picture.               One way to foresee possible future technologies is through what Eric Drexler has termed “theoretical applied science”.9  Theoretical applied science studies the properties of possible physical systems, including ones that cannot yet be built, using methods such as computer simulation and derivation from established physical laws.,10  Theoretical applied science will not in every instance deliver a definitive and uncontroversial yes-or-no answer to questions about the feasibility of some imaginable technology, but it is arguably the best method we have for answering such questions.  Theoretical applied science – both in its more rigorous and its more speculative applications – is therefore an important methodological tool for thinking about the future of technology and, a fortiori, one key determinant of the future of humanity. The future of our species may be relatively short, not because we cause ourselves to go extinct, but because we become an entirely new species. 10. Future of Humanity is an Alternate History and Alternate Future created by Dinotrakker and edited, expanded, and maintained by a multitude of others.               A recurrent collapse scenario consequently requires a carefully calibrated homeostatic mechanism that keeps the level of civilization confined within a relatively narrow interval, as illustrated in figure 1.  Even if humanity were to spend many millennia on such an oscillating trajectory, one might expect that eventually this phase would end, resulting in either the permanent destruction of humankind, or the rise of a stable sustainable global civilization, or the transformation of the human condition into a new “posthuman” condition.  We turn now to the second of these possibilities, that the human condition will reach a kind of stasis, either immediately or after undergoing one of more cycles of collapse-regeneration. Landmark advances in DNA mapping force us to ask questions now that will be even more relevant tomorrow. What Is The Future Of Humanity? There is a change occurring.               The reality is that predictability is a matter of degree, and different aspects of the future are predictable with varying degrees of reliability and precision.3  It may often be a good idea to develop plans that are flexible and to pursue policies that are robust under a wide range of contingencies.  In some cases, it also makes sense to adopt a reactive approach that relies on adapting quickly to changing circumstances rather than pursuing any detailed long-term plan or explicit agenda.  Yet these coping strategies are only one part of the solution.  Another part is to work to improve the accuracy of our beliefs about the future (including the accuracy of conditional predictions of the form “if x is done, y will result”).  There might be traps that we are walking towards that we could only avoid falling into by means of foresight.  There are also opportunities that we could reach much sooner if we could see them farther in advance.  And in a strict sense, prediction is always necessary for meaningful decision-making.4,               Predictability does not necessarily fall off with temporal distance.  It may be highly unpredictable where a traveler will be one hour after the start of her journey, yet predictable that after five hours she will be at her destination.  The very long-term future of humanity may be relatively easy to predict, being a matter amenable to study by the natural sciences, particularly cosmology (physical eschatology).  And for there to be a degree of predictability, it is not necessary that it be possible to identify one specific scenario as what will definitely happen.  If there is at least some scenario that can be ruled out, that is also a degree of predictability.  Even short of this, if there is some basis for assigning different probabilities (in the sense of credences, degrees of belief) to different propositions about logically possible future events, or some basis for criticizing some such probability distributions as less rationally defensible or reasonable than others, then again there is a degree of predictability.  And this is surely the case with regard to many aspects of the future of humanity.  While our knowledge is insufficient to narrow down the space of possibilities to one broadly outlined future for humanity, we do know of many relevant arguments and considerations which in combination impose significant constraints on what a plausible view of the future could look like.  The future of humanity need not be a topic on which all assumptions are entirely arbitrary and anything goes.  There is a vast gulf between knowing exactly what will happen and having absolutely no clue about what will happen.  Our actual epistemic location is some offshore place in that gulf.5, Most differences between our lives and the lives of our hunter-gatherer forebears are ultimately tied to technology, especially if we understand “technology” in its broadest sense, to include not only gadgets and machines but also techniques, processes, and institutions.  In this wide sense we could say that technology is the sum total of instrumentally useful culturally-transmissible information.  Language is a technology in this sense, along with tractors, machine guns, sorting algorithms, double-entry bookkeeping, and Robert’s Rules of Order.6,               Technological innovation is the main driver of long-term economic growth.  Over long time scales, the compound effects of even modest average annual growth are profound.  Technological change is in large part responsible for many of the secular trends in such basic parameters of the human condition as the size of the world population, life expectancy, education levels, material standards of living, and the nature of work, communication, health care, war, and the effects of human activities on the natural environment.  Other aspects of society and our individual lives are also influenced by technology in many direct and indirect ways, including governance, entertainment, human relationships, and our views on morality, mind, matter, and our own human nature.  One does not have to embrace any strong form of technological determinism to recognize that technological capability – through its complex interactions with individuals, institutions, cultures, and environment – is a key determinant of the ground rules within which the games of human civilization get played out.7. The Future of Humanity. Carson, R. (1962) Silent spring (Boston: Houghton Mifflin). Vinge, V. (1993) "The Coming Technological Singularity", Whole Earth Review Winter issue. Kaku recognizes that making predictions hundreds, thousand or even millions of years into the future using the scientific understanding current in 2018 is obviously going to be widely speculative. Available from http://www.nickbostrom.com/views/transhumanist.pdf. The important thing to ask now, as this design gets underway, is, “What do we want to become?”, But even our wants may change. Wright, R. (1999) Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny (New York: Pantheon Books). Religious activists say man shouldn’t “usurp God’s role” by creating new species. Heilbroner, R. L. (1995) Visions of the future: the distant past, yesterday, today, tomorrow (New York: Oxford University Press). Abstract. Steinhardt, P., and Turok, N. (2002) "The Cyclic Universe: An informal introduction", preprint arXiv:astro-ph/0204479v1. transcript. Even though some of these advances are far in the future of humanity, we’re already dealing with the consequences of biological engineering, cyborgs, and inorganic life. (Nordhaus 2007; Cox and Vadon 2007). Mutations, either the result of an intentional or unintentional flaw by the virus’s programmer, can affect the virus’s evolution. 35. Crow, M. M., and Sarewitz, D. (2001) "Nanotechnology and Societal Transformation", in Albert H. Teich, Stephen D. Nelson, Celia McEnaney and Stephen J. Lita (eds.               While there are many conceivable explanations for why an advanced society might collapse, only a subset of these explanations could plausibly account for an unending pattern of collapse and regeneration.  An explanation for such a cycle could not rely on some contingent factor that would apply to only some advanced civilizations and not others, or to a factor that an advanced civilization would have a realistic chance of counteracting; for if such a factor were responsible, one would expect that the collapse-regeneration pattern would at some point be broken when the right circumstances finally enabled an advanced civilization to overcome the obstacles to sustainability.  Yet at the same time, the postulated cause for collapse could not be so powerful as to cause the extinction of the human species. If it does think and feel, is it you thinking and feeling (it’s your brain, after all). Leslie, J. Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) Gráfico Intraday do Ativo Quarta, 17 de Fevereiro de 2021 Today, most of us are cyborgs: We have pacemakers and hearing aids, and even cell phones and computers have become a part of us, storing and processing data and therefore relieving our brains of those tasks. Potential, imminent advances in this field make us question how we define “life.” If we can download the contents of our brains onto a hard drive and then run that hard drive on our laptops, does the laptop now “think”? 17.Does anything interesting follow from this observation?  Well, it is connected to a number of issues that do matter a great deal to work on the future of humanity – issues like observation selection theory and the Fermi paradox; cmp. Future of Humanity Institute. Animal rights activists fight against the suffering caused to animals used in intelligent design experiments. ——— (2002) Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution (Farrar, Straus and Giroux). The Future of Humanity: Terraforming Mars, Interstellar Travel, Immortality, and Our Destiny Beyond Earth Elon Musk was interviewed about the future of humanity on Clubhouse. Available from http://www.hedweb.com/hedab.htm. What Is The Future Of Humanity As a whole technology could take the human race in one of many directions from destruction to tranquility and everything in between. B., and Olney, M. L. (2006) Macroeconomics. This takes us to the second family of scenarios: recurrent collapse. Matthew J. Daniel February 3, 2021. Bertrand Russell's book (or long essay) of Has Man a Future is several decades old; it may be a good starting point while it is quite dated. Revisioning the Human in the Posthuman Age Edited by Pavlina Radia, Sarah Fiona Winters, and Laurie Kruk 3 Reviews. Michio Kaku makes three mind-blowing predictions about the future of humanity.               Those who believe that developments such as those listed will not occur should consider whether their skepticism is really about ultimate feasibility or merely about timescales.  Some of these technologies will be difficult to develop.  Does that give us reason to think that they will never be developed?  Not even in 50 years? Fluoride is a great danger to the future of mankind. Cox, S., and Vadon, R. (2007) "Running the rule over Stern's numbers", in, BBC Radio 4, The Investigation. About The Future of Humanity. This is the future of humanity. Bionic arms that are controlled entirely by the thoughts of the users. Therefore, they had a better chance of survival and passing on their genes. We tend to predict one thing and then history moves in an entirely different direction. The following philosophical forecasts of our fate each win an unforeseeable book. The future of humanity is an important subject, arguably the most important. 20. A discussion about the future of humanity is about how the important fundamental features of the human condition may change or remain constant in the long run.  Current-day pessimists about the future often focus on the environmental problems facing the growing world population, worrying that our wasteful and polluting ways are unsustainable and potentially ruinous to human civilization.  The credit for having handed the environmental movement its initial impetus is often given to Rachel Carson, whose book Silent Spring (1962) sounded the alarm on pesticides and synthetic chemicals that were being released into the environment with allegedly devastating effects on wildlife and human health.31  The environmentalist forebodings swelled over the decade.  Paul Ehrlich’s book Population Bomb, and the Club of Rome report Limits to Growth, which sold 30 million copies, predicted economic collapse and mass starvation by the eighties or nineties as the results of population growth and resource depletion.32,               In recent years, the spotlight of environmental concern has shifted to global climate change.  Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere, where they are expected to cause a warming of Earth’s climate and a concomitant rise in sea water levels.  The more recent report by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which represents the most authoritative assessment of current scientific opinion, attempts to estimate the increase in global mean temperature that would be expected by the end of this century under the assumption that no efforts at mitigation are made.  The final estimate is fraught with uncertainty because of uncertainty about what the default rate of emissions of greenhouse gases will be over the century, uncertainty about the climate sensitivity parameter, and uncertainty about other factors.  The IPCC therefore expresses its assessment in terms of six different climate scenarios based on different models and different assumptions.  The “low” model predicts a mean global warming of +1.8°C (uncertainty range 1.1°C to 2.9°C); the “high” model predicts warming by +4.0°C (2.4°C to 6.4°C).33  Estimated sea level rise predicted by these two most extreme scenarios among the six considered is 18 to 38 cm, and 26 to 59 cm, respectively.34.               The extinction scenario is perhaps the one least affected by extending the timeframe of consideration.  If humanity goes extinct, it stays extinct.72   The cumulative probability of extinction increases monotonically over time.  One might argue, however, that the current century, or the next few centuries, will be a critical phase for humanity, such that if we make it through this period then the life expectancy of human civilization could become extremely high.  Several possible lines of argument would support this view. Matthew J. Daniel February 3, 2021. We are entering a new Golden Age of space exploration. ——— (2007) "The stealth threat: an interview with K. Eric Drexler", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 68 (1):55-58. The future of humanity is no longer at stake. InContext April. For example, humans (organic life) with bionic hands (inorganic) might be considered cyborgs. The desire to do good to others; goodwill; charitableness and benevolence toward one’s fellow creatures. Edwin Wahyudi. The future of learning is humanity, with a side of technology. ——— (2002b) "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards", Journal of Evolution and Technology 9. ——— (2002c) "Self-Locating Belief in Big Worlds: Cosmology's Missing Link to Observation", Journal of Philosophy 99 (12):607–623. Future timeline, a timeline of humanity's future, based on current trends, long-term environmental changes, advances in technology such as Moore's Law, the latest medical advances, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. Still, Sapiens had no way to give entirely new traits to chicken offspring.  200 years? The communication rate is at most 100 bits per second. Humanity and Mother Earth have all ready been uplifted into a higher dimensional reality. A new edition ed.               Traditionally, the future of humanity has been a topic for theology.  All the major religions have teachings about the ultimate destiny of humanity or the end of the world.1  Eschatological themes have also been explored by big-name philosophers such as Hegel, Kant, and Marx.  In more recent times the literary genre of science fiction has continued the tradition.  Very often, the future has served as a projection screen for our hopes and fears; or as a stage setting for dramatic entertainment, morality tales, or satire of tendencies in contemporary society; or as a banner for ideological mobilization.  It is relatively rare for humanity’s future to be taken seriously as a subject matter on which it is important to try to have factually correct beliefs.  There is nothing wrong with exploiting the symbolic and literary affordances of an unknown future, just as there is nothing wrong with fantasizing about imaginary countries populated by dragons and wizards.  Yet it is important to attempt (as best we can) to distinguish futuristic scenarios put forward for their symbolic significance or entertainment value from speculations that are meant to be evaluated on the basis of literal plausibility.  Only the latter form of “realistic” futuristic thought will be considered in this paper. This is the future of humanity. It was the product of surviving animals passing on the characteristics that led to their survival. The Future of Humanity: Terraforming Mars, Interstellar Travel, Immortality, and Our Destiny Beyond Earth is a popular science book by the futurist and physicist Michio Kaku. 2 (2009): 41-78]. Rees, M. (2003) Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century - On Earth and Beyond (Basic Books).               We need to distinguish different classes of scenarios involving societal collapse.  First, we may have a merely local collapse: individual societies can collapse, but this is unlikely to have a determining effect on the future of humanity if other advanced societies survive and take up where the failed societies left off.  All historical examples of collapse have been of this kind.  Second, we might suppose that new kinds of threat (e.g.

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